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Matson, Inc. (MATX) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

Buy WaitModerate Confidence

Industrials · Marine Shipping

Earnings in 3 days (2026-05-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Wait for pullback to $167.50. At $173.60 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $167.50 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.7%; Near 52-week high (4.0% away).

Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics, operating as the largest carrier between the US West Coast and Hawaii and serving Alaska, Guam, Micronesia, and China via expedited CLX/MAX container services. Revenue is earned from ocean freight carriage, SSAT joint venture... Read more

$173.60+10.9% A.UpsideScore 5.3/10#11 of 13 Marine Shipping
Entry $167.50(Atr Pullback Sticky)Stop $157.64Target $187.00(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 1.2:1Setup A.R:R 1.9:1
Analyst target$220.00+26.7%3 analysts
$187.00our TP
$173.60price
$220.00mean
$230

Wait for pullback to $167.50. At $173.60 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $167.50 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.7%; Near 52-week high (4.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/7 gates (clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 3d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Thin upside margin: 7.7%
Near 52-week high (4.0% away)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.6
P/E (Fwd)11.6
Mkt Cap$5.3B
EV/EBITDA9.2
Profit Mgn13.3%
ROE16.4%
Rev Growth-4.3%
Beta1.33
Dividend0.83%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C1.05bearish
IV58%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • MEDIUMCustomerlargest customers
    10-K Item 1A: 'The Company’s businesses are dependent on their relationships with customers and derive a significant portion of their revenues from the Company’s largest customers.'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    John P. Lauer, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, notified Matson on March 9, 2026 of intent to retire July 1, 2026. No successor named for the EVP/CCO role.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Macd
0.0
Volume
0.0
Obv
1.0
Rsi
5.5
Ma Position
9.0
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-day MA

Revenue shrinking — -4.3% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.4
Earnings Growth
6.2
Declining revenue: -4%
GatesMomentum 3.1<4.5A.R:R 1.2 < 1.5@spotEARNINGS PROXIMITY 3d<=7dInsider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
52 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $162.22Resistance $180.88

Price Targets

$158
$168
$187
A.Upside+7.7%
A.R:R1.2:1
Setup A.R:R (at entry)1.9:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Earnings in 3 days - binary event risk
! Momentum score 3.1/10 — below 4.5 minimum
! Reward/Risk 1.2:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-04 (3d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MATX stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $167.50. At $173.60 the A.R:R is 1.2:1 — below the 1.5:1 minimum for BUY_NOW. Engine's entry $167.50 (Atr Pullback Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Key risks: Thin upside margin: 7.7%; Near 52-week high (4.0% away). Chart setup: RSI 52 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Earnings in 3 days. Wait until post-earnings. Target $187.00 (+7.7%), stop $157.64 (−10.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Score 5.3/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MATX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $187.00 (+10.9% upside). Target $187.00 (+7.7%), stop $157.64 (−10.1%), Setup A.R:R 1.9:1. Stop-loss: $157.64.

What are the risks of investing in MATX?

Thin upside margin: 7.7%; Near 52-week high (4.0% away).

Is MATX overvalued or undervalued?

Matson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 12.6 (forward 11.6). TrendMatrix value score: 8.2/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about MATX?

9 analysts cover MATX with a consensus score of 4.4/5. Average price target: $220.

What does Matson, Inc. do?Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics, operating as the largest carrier between the US West Coast and...

Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics, operating as the largest carrier between the US West Coast and Hawaii and serving Alaska, Guam, Micronesia, and China via expedited CLX/MAX container services. Revenue is earned from ocean freight carriage, SSAT joint venture stevedoring, and logistics brokerage through Matson Logistics.

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