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MATXMatson, Inc.Sell5.1·$201.94+1.49%
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Matson, Inc. (MATX) Stock Analysis

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Marine Shipping

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $201.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.6% away).

Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics services to Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, China, Japan, Micronesia, and the South Pacific from the U.S. West Coast, operating through two segments: Ocean Transportation and Logistics. Revenue is earned from container freight, logistics... Read more

$201.94-1.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#11 of 12 Marine Shipping
QualityF-score6 / 9FCF yield3.92%
IncomeYield0.71%(5y avg 1.27%)Payout10.53%sustainable
Stop $190.72Target $199.02(resistance)A.R:R -0.5:1
Analyst target$224.00+10.9%3 analysts
$199.02our TP
$201.94price
$224.00mean
$230

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $201.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 6/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, news events none recent, earnings proximity 46d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-14
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202646d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining
Near 52-week high (0.6% away)
Weak growth

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)15.0
P/E (Fwd)13.3
Mkt Cap$6.1B
EV/EBITDA10.7
Profit Mgn12.9%
ROE16.0%
Rev Growth-3.1%
Beta1.29
Dividend0.71%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.70bullish
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$250+23.8% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • LOWCustomertop-10 Ocean Transportation customers19%
    10-K Item 1: 'The Company's 10 largest Ocean Transportation customers account for approximately 19 percent of the Company's Ocean Transportation revenue'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-03-12Item 5.02MEDIUM
    John P. Lauer, Executive VP and Chief Commercial Officer, notified Matson of intent to retire effective July 1, 2026. No successor named.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

2 floor-breakers

Revenue shrinking — -3.1% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
1.7
Earnings Growth
4.5
Declining revenue: -3%

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
0.0
Support Resistance
0.4
Gap
5.0
52w Position
9.9
GatesA.R:R -0.5=NEGATIVEExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentMomentum 7.2>=5.5Insider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 46d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Moderate
RSI
80 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $177.05Resistance $203.08

Price Targets

$191
$199
A.Upside-1.4%
A.R:R-0.5:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-5.7% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (46d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MATX stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Analyst target reached at $201.94 — A.R:R is negative (-0.5) — price has exceeded the analyst target. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Near 52-week high (0.6% away). Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $190.72. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the MATX stock price target?

Take-profit target: $199.02 (-1.4% upside). Prior stop was $190.72. Stop-loss: $190.72.

What are the risks of investing in MATX?

Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Near 52-week high (0.6% away); Weak growth.

Is MATX overvalued or undervalued?

Matson, Inc. trades at a P/E of 15.0 (forward 13.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.9/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about MATX?

9 analysts cover MATX with a consensus score of 4.3/5. Average price target: $224.

What does Matson, Inc. do?Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics services to Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, China, Japan, Micronesia, and the...

Matson provides ocean transportation and logistics services to Hawaii, Alaska, Guam, China, Japan, Micronesia, and the South Pacific from the U.S. West Coast, operating through two segments: Ocean Transportation and Logistics. Revenue is earned from container freight, logistics brokerage, and value-added services; top 10 customers represent ~19% of Ocean Transportation revenue.

Related stocks: NMM (Navios Maritime Partners LP) · ECO (Okeanis Eco Tankers Corp.) · HAFN (Hafnia Limited) · DAC (Danaos Corporation) · SBLK (Star Bulk Carriers Corp.)
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