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HAYWHayward Holdings, Inc.Hold5.9·$14.61-0.68%
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Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

HoldVALUE-TRAP 1/5Moderate Confidence

Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.1%.

Hayward designs and manufactures pool equipment (variable-speed pumps, filters, cleaners, heaters, LED lights, IoT-connected controls) for residential and commercial pools globally. NAM segment (85% of net sales) and E&RW segment (15%) sell primarily through distributors;... Read more

$14.61+3.1% A.UpsideScore 5.9/10#2 of 18 Electrical Equipment & Parts
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield1.00%
Stop $13.83Target $15.06(analyst − 13%)A.R:R 0.3:1
Analyst target$17.31+18.5%8 analysts
$15.06our TP
$14.61price
$17.31mean
$20

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.1%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 45d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-12
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Jul 28, 202645d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (3/4)
Strong growth profile
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%)
Thin upside margin: 3.1%
Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)20.2
P/E (Fwd)15.4
Mkt Cap$3.2B
EV/EBITDA13.2
Profit Mgn14.0%
ROE10.5%
Rev Growth11.5%
Beta1.12
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9MoatNarrow

Options Flow

P/C0.10bullish
IV109%elevated
Max Pain$17+16.4% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerPool Corporation33%
    10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer, Pool Corporation, which represented approximately 33% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025 and approximately 46% of our accounts receivable as of December 31, 2025'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Bollinger
1.2
Support Resistance
1.7
52w Position
6.5
GatesA.R:R 0.3 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 45d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
64 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $12.93Resistance $14.95

Price Targets

$14
$15
A.Upside+3.1%
A.R:R0.3:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! asymmetry at 0.3 (below the engine's 1.5 threshold)@spot

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-28 (45d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is HAYW stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $14.61, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.1%. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $15.06 (+3.1%), stop $13.83 (−5.6%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Score 5.9/10, moderate confidence.

What is the HAYW stock price target?

Take-profit target: $15.06 (+3.1% upside). Target $15.06 (+3.1%), stop $13.83 (−5.6%), A.R:R 0.3:1. Stop-loss: $13.83.

What are the risks of investing in HAYW?

Concentration risk — Customer: Pool Corporation (33.0%); Thin upside margin: 3.1%; Below 200-MA, MA slope -1.3%/30d (confirmed downtrend).

Is HAYW overvalued or undervalued?

Hayward Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 15.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.1/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about HAYW?

15 analysts cover HAYW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $17.

What does Hayward Holdings, Inc. do?Hayward designs and manufactures pool equipment (variable-speed pumps, filters, cleaners, heaters, LED lights,...

Hayward designs and manufactures pool equipment (variable-speed pumps, filters, cleaners, heaters, LED lights, IoT-connected controls) for residential and commercial pools globally. NAM segment (85% of net sales) and E&RW segment (15%) sell primarily through distributors; aftermarket replacement/upgrade represents approximately 85% of net sales. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales.

Related stocks: AEIS (Advanced Energy Industries, Inc) · AYI (Acuity Inc.) · HUBB (Hubbell Inc) · ATKR (Atkore Inc.) · ENR (Energizer Holdings, Inc.)
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