Hayward Holdings is in a confirmed technical downtrend — below its 200-day moving average with a death cross and falling volume accumulation — while free cash flow stands at only 20% of net income and 85% geographic concentration in North America leaves limited diversification against domestic demand softness; with only 3.4% upside to the analyst target and unfavorable risk-reward, the setup does not favor new exposure, though improving MACD and RSI at 61 suggest early technical stabilization may be developing.
Thesis pillars
- Geographic Concentration North America→Stable
- Confirmed Technical Downtrend↑Improving
- Fcf Quality Red Flag↓Deteriorating
- +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning
Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026, based on the 10-K filed Feb 25, 2026
Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Stock Analysis
Recovery setup
Industrials · Electrical Equipment & Parts
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and... Read more
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 96. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Passes 7/9 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news boost analyst 0.40, earnings proximity 117d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.
Recent developments
updated 2026-10-30Recent Developments — Hayward Holdings, Inc.
Latest news
- NEWS Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership Purchases 605,743 Shares of Hayward Holdings, Inc. $HAYW - MarketBeat — MarketBeat neutral
- NEWS Hayward Holdings, Inc. 2026 Q1 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:HAYW) 2026-04-29 - Seeking Alpha — Seeking Alpha neutral
- NEWS Hayward Holdings, Inc. (HAYW) Surpasses Q1 Earnings and Revenue Estimates - Yahoo Finance — Yahoo Finance positive
- NEWS Hayward (NYSE:HAYW) Reports Upbeat Q1 CY2026 - StockStory — StockStory positive
- NEWS Hayward Holdings (HAYW) upgraded to strong buy: What does it mean for the stock? - MSN — MSN positive
Generated 2026-10-30T11:22:45Z.
Upcoming dated catalysts
Thesis
Key Metrics
Quality Signals
Options Flow
Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)
- MEDIUMCustomerPool Corporation33%10-K Item 1A: 'our largest customer, Pool Corporation, which represented approximately 33% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
- HIGHGeographicNAM segment85%10-K Item 1: 'NAM and E&RW accounted for approximately 85% and 15% of total net sales, respectively'
- LOWCustomeranother customer12%10-K Item 1A: 'Another customer accounted for 12% of our net sales in Fiscal Year 2025'
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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Rating Breakdown
1 floor-breaker
Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static
Price Targets
Position Sizing
Risk Alerts
Earnings
Verdict History
Frequently Asked Questions
Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $15.57, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 96. Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position. | News modifier +2 (SELL_IF_HOLDING → HOLD_IF_HOLDING) Analyst target $15.22 reached (−2.2%), stop $14.59 (−6.7%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Score 6.1/10, moderate confidence.
Analyst target $15.22 reached (−2.2% from $15.57); no take-profit level is published. Analyst target $15.22 reached (−2.2%), stop $14.59 (−6.7%), A.R:R -0.1:1. Stop-loss: $14.59.
Concentration risk — Geographic: NAM segment (85.0%); Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining; Sector modifier (Industrials): -0.7.
Hayward Holdings, Inc. trades at a P/E of 20.2 (forward 16.3). TrendMatrix value score: 6.0/10. Verdict: Hold.
15 analysts cover HAYW with a consensus score of 3.9/5. Average price target: $18.
What does Hayward Holdings, Inc. do?Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT...
Hayward Holdings designs and manufactures pool equipment—including pumps, filters, heaters, robotic cleaners, and IoT automation—sold globally with approximately 85% of net sales in North America. Pool Corporation represents approximately 33% of net sales; aftermarket repair and replacement products account for roughly 85% of total sales.