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DEIDouglas Emmett, Inc.Sell4.4·$12.04-1.79%
SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

Douglas Emmett is an office REIT that is free-cash-flow positive with a 39% FCF margin despite reporting GAAP losses, and has beaten earnings estimates in 3 of the past 4 quarters; however, a hard technical block from a death cross, high short interest at 26%, negative asymmetry, and concentration in a single geographic market combine to make this an unattractive setup at current levels.

Thesis pillars

  • Death Cross Hard Technical BlockStable
  • Fcf Positive Despite Gaap LossStable
  • Earnings Beat TrendStable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Douglas Emmett, Inc. (DEI) Stock Analysis

Range Bound setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5ValueShortModerate Confidence

Real Estate · REIT - Office

Earnings in 5 days (2026-08-04). Expect elevated volatility around the report — consider waiting for post-earnings price action before new entries.

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.04: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.86; Below-average business quality.

Douglas Emmett, Inc. owns and operates 70 office properties (18.0 million sq ft) and 15 multifamily properties (5,445 units) exclusively in Los Angeles County and Honolulu through a fully integrated REIT structure. The company earns rental income primarily from small... Read more

$12.04-4.6% A.UpsideScore 4.4/10#15 of 17 REIT - Office
QualityF-score4 / 9FCF yield15.68%
IncomeYield6.33%(5y avg 5.36%)Payout844.44%
Stop $11.27Target $12.70(resistance)A.R:R -0.7:1
Analyst target$13.20+9.6%10 analysts
$12.70our TP
$12.04price
$13.20mean
$15

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.04: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.86; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 4/8 gates (clean insider activity, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and favorable risk/reward ratio and earnings proximity 5d<=7d. Suitability: aggressive.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Tue, Aug 4, 20265d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Geographic: Los Angeles County and Honolulu
Target reached (-4.6% upside)
Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)
P/E (Fwd)-103.1
Mkt Cap$2.5B
EV/EBITDA15.2
Profit Mgn-2.6%
ROE-1.9%
Rev Growth-0.2%
Beta1.18
Dividend6.33%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F4/9

Options Flow

P/C1.86bearish
IV82%elevated

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHGeographicLos Angeles County and Honolulu
    10-K Item 1A: 'All of our properties are located in Los Angeles County, California, and Honolulu, Hawaii'
  • LOWTenantlegal industry tenants20%
    10-K Item 1A: 'as a percentage of our annualized base rental revenue for the stabilized portfolio, 19.7% of our tenants operated in the legal industry'

Material Events(8-K, last 90d)

  • 2026-06-03Item 5.02LOW
    Stockholders approved the Douglas Emmett, Inc. 2026 Omnibus Stock Incentive Plan at the May 28, 2026 Annual Meeting. The plan was adopted by the Board on April 8, 2026 and authorizes grants covering up to 15 million shares. No further grants under the 2016 Plan.
    SEC filing →
  • 2026-04-10Item 5.02LOW
    Director Leslie E. Bider notified the company on April 6, 2026 that he will not stand for re-election and will retire at the May 28, 2026 Annual Meeting. No disagreement cited. Andy Cohen elected to the Board effective April 8, 2026 as replacement.
    SEC filing →

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

4 floor-breakers

Risk profile below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Days To Cover
0.0
Implied Vol
0.0
Short Interest
0.9
Put Call
0.9
Volatility
3.6
Debt Equity
3.7
Beta
6.3
High short interest justified: 26%Elevated put/call: 1.86High IV: 82%Concentration risks: 1 HIGH (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)

Revenue shrinking — -0.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
2.5
Declining revenue: -0%
Low model confidence on this dimension (33%).

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
2.4
Quality Rank
2.9
Value Rank
5.9

Momentum below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Obv
1.0
Volume
1.7
Macd
3.1
Ma Position
5.0
Rsi
5.5
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Above 200-MA but MA slope flat
GatesMomentum 3.3<4.5A.R:R -0.7=NEGATIVEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 5d<=7dExecutive change: officer departure/appointmentInsider activity: OKNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRange BoundSuitability: Aggressive
RSI
51 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $11.62Resistance $12.96

Price Targets

$11
$13
A.Upside-4.6%
A.R:R-0.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-4.6% upside)
! Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0)
! momentum at 3.3 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
B
M
3/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-08-04 (5d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is DEI stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Engine safety override at $12.04: a dimension score below its floor triggers a hard block regardless of the otherwise-positive setup — overall score 4.4/10. Specifically: High short interest: 26%; Elevated put/call ratio: 1.86; Below-average business quality. Chart setup: RSI 51 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band. Prior stop was $11.27. Score 4.4/10, moderate confidence.

What is the DEI stock price target?

Take-profit target: $12.70 (-4.6% upside). Prior stop was $11.27. Stop-loss: $11.27.

What are the risks of investing in DEI?

Concentration risk — Geographic: Los Angeles County and Honolulu; Target reached (-4.6% upside); Risk below floor (2.2 < 3.0).

Is DEI overvalued or undervalued?

Douglas Emmett, Inc. trades at a P/E of N/A (forward -103.1). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about DEI?

19 analysts cover DEI with a consensus score of 2.7/5. Average price target: $13.

What does Douglas Emmett, Inc. do?Douglas Emmett, Inc. owns and operates 70 office properties (18.0 million sq ft) and 15 multifamily properties (5,445...

Douglas Emmett, Inc. owns and operates 70 office properties (18.0 million sq ft) and 15 multifamily properties (5,445 units) exclusively in Los Angeles County and Honolulu through a fully integrated REIT structure. The company earns rental income primarily from small professional office tenants — led by legal, financial services, and real estate industries — and from apartment residents. Geographic concentration in two coastal markets creates exposure to California regulatory, seismic, and local economic cycle risks.

Related stocks: PSTL (Postal Realty Trust, Inc.) · BXP (BXP, Inc.) · SLG (SL Green Realty Corp) · DEA (Easterly Government Properties,) · ESBA (Empire State Realty OP, L.P. Se)
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