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CMCLCaledonia Mining Corporation PlBuy Wait7.2·$24.77-0.56%
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Caledonia Mining Corporation Pl (CMCL) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup · Inst Constrain edge

Buy WaitDEATH CROSS (EXEMPT)ValueGrowthQualityModerate Confidence

Basic Materials · Gold

Wait for pullback to $21.57. BUY gates pass at $24.77, but consecutive earnings misses (2) and overbought (RSI 86) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $21.57 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum.

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe. The company is also involved in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. It owns a 64% stake in the gold-producing Blanket Mine, 100%... Read more

$24.77+46.6% A.UpsideScore 7.2/10#6 of 41 Gold
QualityF-score9 / 9FCF yield10.49%
IncomeYield2.25%(5y avg 4.11%)Payout16.05%sustainable
Entry $21.57(Ma200 Sticky)Stop $19.35Target $36.32(analyst − 15%)A.R:R 3.1:1
Analyst target$42.73+72.5%3 analysts
$36.32our TP
$24.77price
$42.73mean
$48

Wait for pullback to $21.57. BUY gates pass at $24.77, but consecutive earnings misses (2) and overbought (RSI 86) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $21.57 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 86. Deep value: 53% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 9/10 gates (positive momentum, favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, positive momentum, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 78d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Suitability: aggressive.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-08-22
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Mon, Nov 9, 202678d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong overall score: 7.2/10
High-quality business
Attractive valuation
Risks
Consecutive earnings misses (2)
Overbought (RSI 86)

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)7.1
P/E (Fwd)4.9
Mkt Cap$479M
EV/EBITDA3.1
Profit Mgn24.1%
ROE27.9%
Rev Growth16.5%
Beta0.66
Dividend2.25%
Rating analysts9

Quality Signals

Piotroski F9/9MoatWideCompounder

Options Flow

P/C0.25bullish
IV58%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

1 floor-breaker·2 ceiling hits

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Support Resistance
0.8
Bollinger
1.2
52w Position
3.1
Gap
5.0
GatesDeath cross exempted (quality + momentum high enough)Momentum 7.1>=5.5A.R:R 3.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 78d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
86 · Overbought
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $17.89Resistance $25.39

Price Targets

$19
$22
$36
A.Upside+46.6%
A.R:R3.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionHigh conviction
Suggested %1.6%
Max %3.2%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! News modifier -1: STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-09 (78d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMCL stock a buy right now?

Wait for pullback to $21.57. BUY gates pass at $24.77, but consecutive earnings misses (2) and overbought (RSI 86) argue for a more patient entry. Engine's entry $21.57 (Ma200 Sticky) is the shallowest technical level that clears the 2:1 A.R:R minimum. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 86. Deep value: 53% margin of safety. Extreme undervaluation. | News modifier -1 (STRONG_BUY_NOW → STRONG_BUY_WAIT) Target $36.32 (+46.6%), stop $19.35 (−28.0%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Score 7.2/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CMCL stock price target?

Take-profit target: $36.32 (+46.6% upside). Target $36.32 (+46.6%), stop $19.35 (−28.0%), A.R:R 3.1:1. Stop-loss: $19.35.

What are the risks of investing in CMCL?

Consecutive earnings misses (2); Overbought (RSI 86).

Is CMCL overvalued or undervalued?

Caledonia Mining Corporation Pl trades at a P/E of 7.1 (forward 4.9). TrendMatrix value score: 9.6/10. Verdict: Buy (Wait for Entry).

What do analysts say about CMCL?

9 analysts cover CMCL with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $43.

What does Caledonia Mining Corporation Pl do?Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe. The...

Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc engages in the exploration, development, and production of gold in Zimbabwe. The company is also involved in the exploration and development of mineral properties for precious metals. It owns a 64% stake in the gold-producing Blanket Mine, 100% stake in the Bilboes Sulphide Project, and the Motapa and Maligreen gold mining claims in Zimbabwe. The company was incorporated in 1992 and is headquartered in Saint Helier, Jersey.

Related stocks: FSM (Fortuna Mining Corp.) · ARIS (Aris Mining Corporation) · MAKO (Mako Mining Corp) · DRD (DRDGOLD Limited) · GAU (Galiano Gold Inc.)
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