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CFRCullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.Hold5.6·$145.31-1.82%
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Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) Stock Analysis

Breakout setup

HoldModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate (80.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits.

Cullen/Frost Bankers is a Texas-focused financial holding company operating through Frost Bank, one of the largest commercial banks headquartered in Texas, with $53.0 billion in consolidated total assets and 204 financial centers across Texas at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes... Read more

$145.31+0.1% A.UpsideScore 5.6/10#97 of 142 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield
IncomeYield2.78%(5y avg 2.89%)Payout38.95%sustainable
Stop $139.07Target $145.63(resistance)A.R:R -0.8:1
Analyst target$150.53+3.6%15 analysts
$145.63our TP
$145.31price
$150.53mean
$130
$165

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate (80.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/8 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 44d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: moderate.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-06-15
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Thu, Jul 30, 202644d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Strong earnings beat streak (4/4)
Positive momentum
Risks
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate (80.9%)
Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits
Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)14.4
P/E (Fwd)13.4
Mkt Cap$9.3B
EV/EBITDA
Profit Mgn30.0%
ROE15.5%
Rev Growth7.8%
Beta0.55
Dividend2.78%
Rating analysts19

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C1.33bearish
IV59%elevated
Max Pain$105-27.7% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHloan_portfoliocommercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate81%
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 80.9% of our loan portfolio consisted of commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate mortgage loans'
  • MEDIUMloan_portfoliocommercial real estate mortgage loans47%
    10-K Item 1A: 'commercial real estate mortgage loans comprised approximately 47.1% of our loan portfolio'
  • HIGHloan_portfoliouninsured deposits
    10-K Item 1A: 'approximately 52% of our deposits were uninsured and we rely on these deposits for liquidity'
  • HIGHGeographicTexas
    10-K Item 1: 'primarily engaged in the business of commercial and consumer banking through approximately 204 financial centers across Texas'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. The TrendMatrix editorial team frequently holds personal long-term positions in securities discussed. We disclose positions held at the time of publication on each piece. We maintain a trading-window policy: we do not initiate or close positions in the same direction as a TrendMatrix publication within 24 hours before or 72 hours after publication.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

10 dimensions · all in-band

GatesA.R:R -0.8=NEGATIVEMomentum 7.6>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 44d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARBreakoutSuitability: Moderate
RSI
63 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MAGOLDEN CROSSSupport $132.57Resistance $148.60

Price Targets

$139
$146
A.Upside+0.2%
A.R:R-0.8:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeSteady

Risk Alerts

! Target reached (-6.9% upside)
! Negative risk/reward — downside exceeds upside

Earnings

B
B
B
B
4/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-07-30 (44d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CFR stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $145.31, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate (80.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits. Chart setup: Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish. Maintain position. Not compelling to add more. Target $145.63 (+0.2%), stop $139.07 (−4.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Score 5.6/10, moderate confidence.

What is the CFR stock price target?

Take-profit target: $145.63 (+0.1% upside). Target $145.63 (+0.2%), stop $139.07 (−4.5%), A.R:R -0.8:1. Stop-loss: $139.07.

What are the risks of investing in CFR?

Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: commercial and industrial, energy, construction and commercial real estate (80.9%); Concentration risk — Loan Portfolio: uninsured deposits; Analyst target reached - limited upside remaining.

Is CFR overvalued or undervalued?

Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. trades at a P/E of 14.4 (forward 13.4). TrendMatrix value score: 6.2/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about CFR?

19 analysts cover CFR with a consensus score of 3.3/5. Average price target: $151.

What does Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. do?Cullen/Frost Bankers is a Texas-focused financial holding company operating through Frost Bank, one of the largest...

Cullen/Frost Bankers is a Texas-focused financial holding company operating through Frost Bank, one of the largest commercial banks headquartered in Texas, with $53.0 billion in consolidated total assets and 204 financial centers across Texas at December 31, 2025. Revenue comes from net interest income and fee-based services spanning commercial/consumer banking, trust and wealth management, and insurance across Banking and Frost Wealth Advisors segments.

Related stocks: CUBI (Customers Bancorp, Inc) · IFS (Intercorp Financial Services In) · SSB (SouthState Bank Corporation) · GABC (German American Bancorp, Inc.) · INTR (Inter & Co. Inc.)
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