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BMABanco Macro S.A.Hold5.5·$60.21
HoldModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

The bank has delivered three beats in the last four quarters alongside strong positive news sentiment, but the stock has reached its resistance target with effectively zero remaining upside, quality metrics fall below the minimum acceptable bar, and an overbought RSI of 77 leaves no room for error — the setup argues for reducing rather than adding.

Thesis pillars

  • Weak Quality Declining Revenue→Stable
  • Recent Earnings Beats Positive Sentiment↑Improving
  • Stock At Resistance No Asymmetry→Stable
  • +1 more pillar — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

Banco Macro S.A. (BMA) Stock Analysis

HoldValueModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $60.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak growth.

Banco Macro S.A. provides various banking products and services to retail and corporate customers in Argentina. It offers various retail banking products and services, such as savings and checking accounts, time deposits, credit and debit cards, consumer finance loans, mortgage... Read more

$60.21+50.9% A.UpsideScore 5.5/10#164 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score8 / 9FCF yield—
IncomeYield7.57%(5y avg 5.04%)Payout100.35%at-risk
Stop $56.27Analyst target $90.87(−13% haircut)A.R:R 5.1:1
Analyst consensus$104.45+73.5%9 analysts
$90.87Analyst target
$60.21price
$104.45mean
$131

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $60.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 7/9 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, earnings proximity 27d clear, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum and death cross (50MA < 200MA). Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29
TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 25, 202627d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Positive insider activity
Risks
V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5)
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)12.3
P/E (Fwd)5.3
Mkt Cap$3.8B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn9.0%
ROE7.1%
Rev Growth1.2%
Beta0.41
Dividend7.57%
Rating analysts11

Quality Signals

Piotroski F8/9

Options Flow

P/C2.00bearish
IV68%elevated

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
2.7
Revenue Growth
2.8

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Obv
1.0
Ma Position
1.0
Volume
2.7
Rsi
3.5
Macd
7.6
Volume distribution (falling OBV)Below 200-MA, MA slope -3.5%/30d — confirmed downtrend

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Quality Rank
0.6
Growth Rank
1.5
Value Rank
7.0
GatesMomentum 3.2<4.5Death cross (50MA < 200MA)A.R:R 5.1 ≥ 1.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTEARNINGS PROXIMITY 27d clearSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
35 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $58.01Resistance $69.69

Price Targets

$56
$91
A.Upside+50.9%
A.R:R5.1:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 3.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)
! Death cross — 50-day MA below 200-day MA

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-25 (27d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is BMA stock a buy right now?

Hold if already holding. Not a fresh buy at $60.21, but acceptable to hold if already in. Reasons: V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Mixed signals. Hold existing position. Analyst target $90.87 (+50.9%), stop $56.27 (−7.0%), A.R:R 5.1:1. Score 5.5/10, moderate confidence.

What is the BMA stock price target?

Analyst target: $90.87 (+50.9% upside). Analyst target $90.87 (+50.9%), stop $56.27 (−7.0%), A.R:R 5.1:1. Stop-loss: $56.27.

What are the risks of investing in BMA?

V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.5); Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is BMA overvalued or undervalued?

Banco Macro S.A. trades at a P/E of 12.3 (forward 5.3). TrendMatrix value score: 9.5/10. Verdict: Hold.

What do analysts say about BMA?

11 analysts cover BMA with a consensus score of 4.2/5. Average price target: $104.

What does Banco Macro S.A. do?Banco Macro S.A. provides various banking products and services to retail and corporate customers in Argentina. It...

Banco Macro S.A. provides various banking products and services to retail and corporate customers in Argentina. It offers various retail banking products and services, such as savings and checking accounts, time deposits, credit and debit cards, consumer finance loans, mortgage loans, automobile loans, overdrafts, credit-related services, home and car insurance coverage, tax collection, utility payments, automated teller machines, and money transfers. The company also provides personal loans, document discounts, residential mortgages, overdrafts, pledged loans, and credit card loans to retail customers. In addition, it offers corporate banking products and services, including deposits, lending, check cashing advances and factoring, guaranteed loans, credit lines for financing foreign trade, and cash management services; and trust, payroll, and financial agency services, as well as corporate credit cards and other specialty products; and working capital facilities, credit for investment projects, and leasing and foreign trade transactions. Further, the company provides transaction services, such as cash management, collection services, payments to suppliers, payroll services, foreign exchange transactions, and foreign trade services; information services to corporate customers; and internet and mobile banking services. Additionally, it offers short-term and medium-to-long-term corporate lending products. Banco Macro S.A. was incorporated in 1966 and is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.

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