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Ares Management Corporation (ARES) Stock Analysis

Recovery setup

SellVALUE-TRAP 1/5High Confidence

Financial Services · Asset Management

Sell if holding. At $116.94, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC.

Ares Management is a global alternative investment manager with $622.5B in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries, and Private Equity groups, operating in 55+ offices in 25+ countries with 4,250+ employees. It earns management fees, performance fees, and carried interest... Read more

$116.94+9.3% A.UpsideScore 4.8/10#98 of 109 Asset Management
Stop $108.52Target $127.54(analyst − 10%)A.R:R 0.6:1
Analyst target$141.71+21.2%17 analysts
$127.54our TP
$116.94price
$141.71mean
$104
$190

Sell if holding. At $116.94, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

Passes 5/7 gates (positive momentum, clean insider activity, no SEC red flags, earnings proximity no date, semi cycle peak clear). Fails on favorable risk/reward ratio. Suitability: aggressive.

Thesis

Rewards
No bull case signals
Risks
Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC
Thin upside margin: 9.3%
Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)68.7
P/E (Fwd)15.9
Mkt Cap$38.8B
EV/EBITDA36.3
Profit Mgn9.4%
ROE13.5%
Rev Growth19.5%
Beta1.54
Dividend4.60%
Rating analysts23

Quality Signals

Piotroski F6/9

Options Flow

P/C0.90neutral
IV61%elevated
Max Pain$70-40.1% vs spot

Concentration Risks(10-K Item 1A)

  • HIGHCustomerARCC
    10-K Item 1A: 'we derive a significant portion of our management fees from ARCC'

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers

Technicals below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

52w Position
2.3
Support Resistance
2.7
Bollinger
3.3
Gap
5.0

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Value Rank
2.6
Quality Rank
3.9
Growth Rank
7.9

Growth below the gate floor. Component breakdown shows what dragged the score down.static

Earnings Growth
0.0
Revenue Growth
7.4
GatesA.R:R 0.6 < 1.5@spotDeath cross (50MA < 200MA)Momentum 6.0>=5.5Insider activity: OKNo SEC red flagsEARNINGS PROXIMITY NO DATESEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARRecoverySuitability: Aggressive
RSI
62 · Neutral
20D MA 50D MA 200D MADEATH CROSSSupport $98.44Resistance $123.46

Price Targets

$109
$128
A.Upside+9.1%
A.R:R0.6:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0.5%
Max %1%
RegimeCautious

Risk Alerts

! Reward/Risk 0.6:1 at current price — below 1.5:1 minimum

Earnings

B
M
M
M
1/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-05-01 (nulld)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is ARES stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. At $116.94, A.R:R 0.6:1 is below the 1.5:1 minimum. Reward from here is too thin for a buy — the engine flags exit. Additional concerns: Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC. Chart setup: Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 62. Prior stop was $108.52. Score 4.8/10, high confidence.

What is the ARES stock price target?

Take-profit target: $127.54 (+9.3% upside). Prior stop was $108.52. Stop-loss: $108.52.

What are the risks of investing in ARES?

Concentration risk — Customer: ARCC; Thin upside margin: 9.3%; Leverage penalty (D/E 1.6): -1.0.

Is ARES overvalued or undervalued?

Ares Management Corporation trades at a P/E of 68.7 (forward 15.9). TrendMatrix value score: 5.2/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about ARES?

23 analysts cover ARES with a consensus score of 4.0/5. Average price target: $142.

What does Ares Management Corporation do?Ares Management is a global alternative investment manager with $622.5B in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries,...

Ares Management is a global alternative investment manager with $622.5B in AUM across Credit, Real Assets, Secondaries, and Private Equity groups, operating in 55+ offices in 25+ countries with 4,250+ employees. It earns management fees, performance fees, and carried interest from funds serving 2,850+ direct institutional relationships. AUM grew at a 21% CAGR over the past decade.

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