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SellModerate Confidence
Investment thesis

AGBK trades at a deeply discounted forward P/E of 3.4x with analyst consensus implying 105% upside to $12.36, but 22% revenue contraction, a Piotroski F-Score of 3 out of 9, and 13% short interest make this a speculative value play requiring evidence of business stabilization before it becomes actionable.

Thesis pillars

  • High Short Interest Overhang↑Improving
  • Weak Business Quality Foundation→Stable
  • Deep Valuation Discount→Stable
  • +2 more pillars — see the Why tab for full reasoning

Pillars as of Jul 3, 2026

Full reasoning →

Open full analysis

AGI Inc (AGBK) Stock Analysis

Inst Constrain edge

SellVALUE-TRAP 2/5ValueQualityShortModerate Confidence

Financial Services · Banks - Regional

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $5.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Weak growth.

Agi Inc. provides technology-powered specialized financial services in Brazil. The company offers social security benefits; severance fund benefits; public or private sector payrolls through secured lending solutions; and complementary banking, credit, and insurance products. It... Read more

$5.10+100.4% A.UpsideScore 5.1/10#203 of 222 Banks - Regional
QualityF-score3 / 9FCF yield—
Stop $4.74Analyst target $10.22(−13% haircut)A.R:R 6.7:1
Analyst consensus$11.75+130.4%11 analysts
$10.22Analyst target
$5.10price
$11.75mean
$15

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $5.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

Passes 5/8 gates (favorable risk/reward ratio, no SEC red flags, news events none recent, semi cycle peak clear, materials cycle peak clear). Fails on weak momentum. Suitability: speculative.

news + 30-day 8-K events · 5-min refresh

Recent developments

updated 2026-10-29

Recent Developments — AGI Inc

Generated 2026-10-29T11:20:24Z.

TrendMatrix Research · upcoming catalyst calendar

Upcoming dated catalysts

Wed, Nov 11, 202613d to earnings· next earnings call

Thesis

Rewards
Sector modifier (Financial Services): +1.0
Attractive valuation
Margin of safety: 59%
Risks
Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5
Weak growth
Negative momentum

Key Metrics

P/E (TTM)5.0
P/E (Fwd)2.8
Mkt Cap$1.3B
EV/EBITDA—
Profit Mgn23.3%
ROE—
Rev Growth-15.2%
Beta—
DividendNone
Rating analysts15

Quality Signals

Piotroski F3/9

Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy

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About TrendMatrix. TrendMatrix is a publisher of general securities research and market commentary. We publish on a regular schedule. All content is the same for every subscriber in a tier — we do not provide personalized investment advice and we do not take into account any individual subscriber's financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, tax situation, or holdings.

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Conflicts and positions. People who build TrendMatrix, or entities they control, may hold positions, long or short, in securities it covers, and may trade them at any time. Positions are not disclosed individually. Verdicts are generated by an automated model applied by the same rules to every covered stock, and are not adjusted for any position held by the people who build TrendMatrix. We do not accept payment from issuers for coverage.

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Performance. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance figures reflect the published model only and do not reflect any individual subscriber's actual results.

Methodology · Editorial policy & full disclaimer

Rating Breakdown

3 floor-breakers·1 ceiling hit

Revenue shrinking — -15.2% YoY. Growth thesis broken unless recovery story develops.static

Revenue Growth
0.0
Earnings Growth
0.0
Declining revenue: -15%

Price action weak — below key moving averages, no momentum carry. Needs a base before trend-continuation setups apply.static

Macd
0.0
Obv
1.0
Ma Position
2.5
Rsi
3.5
Volume
4.1
Volume distribution (falling OBV)

Ranks in the bottom of its industry peers on the composite signal. Better names in the same sector exist.static

Growth Rank
0.2
Quality Rank
1.4
Value Rank
9.6
Attractive P/E vs peers
GatesMomentum 2.2<4.5INSIDER 0.23%=MODERATEEARNINGS PROXIMITY 13d<=14d (soft)A.R:R 6.7 ≥ 1.5No SEC red flagsNEWS EVENTS NONE RECENTSEMI CYCLE PEAK CLEARMATERIALS CYCLE PEAK CLEARSuitability: Speculative
RSI
38 · Neutral
↓ 20D MA↓ 50D MA↓ 200D MASupport $4.43Resistance $7.87

Price Targets

$5
$10
A.Upside+100.4%
A.R:R6.7:1

Position Sizing

ConvictionNone
Suggested %0%
Max %0%
RegimeRisk-Off

Risk Alerts

! momentum at 2.2 (below the engine's 4.5 threshold)

Earnings

B
B
M
M
2/4 beats
Next Earnings2026-11-11 (13d)

Verdict History

reverse chrono — latest first
Loading history...
Verdicts are recorded on every nightly pipeline run. Rows capture transitions (verdict flips, score deltas ≥0.3, entry/TP/SL changes). Rows with a ▶ can be expanded to see the change reason. Aggregate cohort performance is tracked in the recommendation ledger.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is AGBK stock a buy right now?

Sell if holding. Momentum 2.2/10 is below the 5.0 floor at $5.10 — engine's falling-knife protection flags exit rather than catching a breakdown. Specifics: Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Weak growth. Chart setup: No clear chart pattern; technical signals are mixed. Prior stop was $4.74. Score 5.1/10, moderate confidence.

What is the AGBK stock price target?

Analyst target: $10.22 (+100.4% upside). Prior stop was $4.74. Stop-loss: $4.74.

What are the risks of investing in AGBK?

Leverage penalty (D/E 4.1): -1.5; Weak growth; Negative momentum.

Is AGBK overvalued or undervalued?

AGI Inc trades at a P/E of 5.0 (forward 2.8). TrendMatrix value score: 9.8/10. Verdict: Sell.

What do analysts say about AGBK?

15 analysts cover AGBK with a consensus score of 4.1/5. Average price target: $12.

What does AGI Inc do?Agi Inc. provides technology-powered specialized financial services in Brazil. The company offers social security...

Agi Inc. provides technology-powered specialized financial services in Brazil. The company offers social security benefits; severance fund benefits; public or private sector payrolls through secured lending solutions; and complementary banking, credit, and insurance products. It provides its services through cloud-based software, AI-driven automation, and mobile applications. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in Campinas, Brazil.

Related stocks: GCBC (Greene County Bancorp, Inc.) · HBNC (Horizon Bancorp, Inc.) · MBIN (Merchants Bancorp) · CARE (Carter Bankshares, Inc.) · CCNE (CNB Financial Corporation)
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