Value
9.0/10data confidence 83%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.9 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 9.3x
- ▸PEG: 0.14
- ▸Attractively valued
WLY · Why this verdict
Why John Wiley & Sons (WLY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score6.1/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.2 |
| ROA | 4.2 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 6.6 |
| Net margin | 4.6 |
| Current ratio | 2.4 |
| FCF quality | 7.1 |
| Moat | 6.4 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Rule of 40: 11 (fail)
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.4/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 2.8 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 9.7 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 0.0 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.6 |
| Price target | 9.5 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Light analyst coverage (1.0) — signal dampened
- ▸Analyst upside: 50%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 7.5 |
| quality rank | 2.5 |
| growth rank | 0.0 |
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.8 |
| support resistance | 1.0 |
| 52w position | 9.7 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 3.9 |
| days to cover | 0.0 |
| volatility | 5.6 |
| put call | 10.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 8.2 |
| debt equity | 4.6 |
- ▸High IV: 89%
- ▸Above max pain $35
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 2.9 |
| dividend safety | 4.8 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
- ▸Earnings in 8 days
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:6.7>=5.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.2>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (0)
none
Warning (2)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:8d<=14d (soft)
Reward-to-Risk
2.20
Upside
+27.5%
Downside
12.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 64, MACD bullish
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 8d with 3/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $2.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.8 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 9.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.20 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 9.0, Momentum at 6.7, and Sentiment at 6.7; the weakest are Peer rank at 3.8, Technical at 4.2, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.4. The V9 engine cleared all gates with 2 warnings, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.20 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.