Vistra (VST) Q2 2026 earnings — TrendMatrix coverage
Reported
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Full disclosure
Key numbers
- Reported EPS
- $0.76
- Estimate
- $1.63
- Surprise
- -53.4%
- Revenue (period 2026-06-30)
- $4.02B
- Score today
- 4.9/10
Revenue source: mixed.
How the report landed
Vistra (VST) missed the $1.63 estimate with diluted EPS of $0.76 — a large 53.4% shortfall.
Where TrendMatrix's rating stands now
TrendMatrix currently rates VST Sell at 4.9/10; no pre/post engine snapshot brackets this report.
1 of the last 4 quarters beat the estimate; this quarter's -53.4% surprise compares with a -19.5% four-quarter average. Next scheduled report: 2026-11-05.
What supports the rating
- Sector modifier (Utilities): +1.0
- Attractive valuation
What argues against it
- Concentration risk — Commodity: natural gas (62.0%)
- V7 low-quality RISK_OFF penalty: -0.5 (Q=4.7)
- Leverage penalty (D/E 3.7): -1.5
This section and the ones below it reflect TrendMatrix’s latest engine read — they update after the report date and are not frozen to it.
The levels TrendMatrix's engine tracks
- Current price
- $148.99
- Price target
- $195.68
- Stop
- $139.30
- Upside to target
- +31.3%
- Reward-to-risk
- 3.4:1
The stock trades at 25.0× trailing but 14.3× forward earnings — consensus estimates already build in a substantial earnings recovery.
Risk check: RSI 71 — a level conventionally read as overbought; gains at these levels often lean on momentum.
Model outputs from TrendMatrix’s engine as of 2026-09-14 — shown for context, not personalized investment advice.
VST at TrendMatrix's latest read
Utility earnings are regulatory outcomes on a lag — allowed-return and rate-case posture frame any quarter's print.
- Industry
- Utilities - Independent Power Producers
- Market cap
- $49.80B
- P/E (fwd)
- 14.3
- P/E (ttm)
- 25.0
- 52-week range
- $132.66–$219.82
- Off 52-week high
- 32.2%
- RSI (14)
- 71
- Volume vs avg
- 0.76×
- Score today
- 4.9/10