Value
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 3.8 |
| P/S | 6.3 |
| EV/EBITDA | 0.0 |
| Fwd P/E | 4.5 |
| PEG | 4.8 |
| Analyst target | 6.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.6x
- ▸PEG: 1.67
SPOT · Why this verdict
Why Spotify Technology (SPOT) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.6/10
ConfidenceHIGH
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 7.8 |
| Gross margin | 2.5 |
| Op margin | 6.3 |
| Net margin | 7.7 |
| Current ratio | 7.2 |
| FCF quality | 2.1 |
| Moat | 5.4 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 38%
- ▸Strong margins: 15%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 26% FCF/NI
- ▸No competitive moat
Growth
7.2/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 4.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.6 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 1.3 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -5.6%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 7.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 7.9 |
- ▸LLM news sentiment: +0.50 (n=1)
- ▸Analyst upside: 22%
Insider
3.8/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.0 |
| holder change | 5.0 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $59,710,198 (0.058% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
4.3/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 2.7 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 5.0 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
Technical
4.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 3.9 |
| support resistance | 3.3 |
| 52w position | 2.6 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
4.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.0 |
| days to cover | 8.0 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 4.9 |
| implied vol | 4.2 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 4.8 |
| debt equity | 0.0 |
- ▸Above max pain $390
Catalyst
5.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 6.7 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 3.2 |
| news activity | 5.0 |
- ▸Strong earnings: 3B/1M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- MOMENTUM:6.2>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:49d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot
Warning (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:momentum=6.2>=5.0 recovering
Reward-to-Risk
0.82
Upside
+12.3%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRECOVERY — Death cross but MACD improving, RSI 64
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 1.55>1.3
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 3.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Sentiment at 7.6) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:0.8<1.5@spot) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 0.82 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 7.6, Growth at 7.2, and Quality at 6.4; the weakest are Insider at 3.8, Technical at 4.0, and Risk (lower is worse) at 4.1. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 0.82 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.