Value
8.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 7.6 |
| P/S | 9.4 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.2 |
| Fwd P/E | 10.0 |
| PEG | 6.8 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 5.2x
- ▸PEG: 1.06
- ▸Attractively valued
PRGS · Why this verdict
Why Progress Software (PRGS) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 6.1 |
| ROA | 3.1 |
| Gross margin | 10.0 |
| Op margin | 8.0 |
| Net margin | 4.3 |
| Current ratio | 1.9 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 291% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
6.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 3.4 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.1 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -6.1%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 5.0 |
| Price target | 9.8 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 62%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Insider selling (low materiality) — $130,334 (0.010% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.6/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 8.0 |
| quality rank | 5.6 |
| growth rank | 0.8 |
Technical
3.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.2 |
| support resistance | 4.7 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 2.8 |
| days to cover | 3.4 |
| volatility | 0.3 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 1.0 |
| max pain risk | 7.0 |
| beta | 8.0 |
| debt equity | 2.2 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 3.82
- ▸High IV: 74%
Catalyst
6.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 7.5 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (8)
- MOMENTUM:4.8>=4.5
- ASYMMETRY:2.9>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:17d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (1)
- MOMENTUM:4.8<5.5 (soft — BUY_NOW allowed but watch)
Reward-to-Risk
2.86
Upside
+40.5%
Downside
14.2%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 57 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeCATALYST — Earnings in 17d with 4/4 beat streak
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — MCap $1.3B<$5B
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Value at 8.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.86 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Value at 8.4, Catalyst at 6.9, and Growth at 6.8; the weakest are Technical at 3.0, Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1, and Peer rank at 3.6. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.86 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.