Value
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 5.2 |
| P/S | 7.9 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.3 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.7 |
| PEG | 7.7 |
| Analyst target | 7.5 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 13.0x
- ▸PEG: 0.89
PCTY · Why this verdict
Why Paylocity Holding (PCTY) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
7.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 7.2 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 9.9 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 7.5 |
| Current ratio | 4.2 |
| FCF quality | 9.7 |
| Moat | 9.0 |
| Rule of 40 | 5.5 |
| Piotroski F | 8.9 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 142% FCF/NI
- ▸Wide economic moat
- ▸Compounder quality: strong returns + growth
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 8/9
Growth
6.3/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.1 |
| EPS growth | 7.5 |
Momentum
2.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 4.5 |
| MACD | 1.4 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 6.0 |
| Volume | 0.9 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -7.4%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
7.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.5 |
| Price target | 9.0 |
| erm sentiment | 5.4 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 36%
Insider
5.0/10data confidence 50%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $293,062 (0.005% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.4 |
| quality rank | 6.9 |
| growth rank | 3.0 |
Technical
4.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 4.7 |
| support resistance | 5.3 |
| 52w position | 1.1 |
| gap | 6.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 6.6 |
| days to cover | 7.2 |
| volatility | 0.8 |
| put call | 9.5 |
| implied vol | 2.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 9.5 |
- ▸High IV: 68%
Catalyst
7.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 8.6 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:2.4>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
2.43
Upside
+22.7%
Downside
9.4%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupRANGE_BOUND — RSI 49 mid-range, Bollinger mid-band
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.3 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Quality at 7.5) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( MOMENTUM:2.8<4.5, DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is 2.43 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Quality at 7.5, Sentiment at 7.4, and Catalyst at 7.2; the weakest are Momentum at 2.8, Peer rank at 3.8, and Technical at 4.3. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 2.43 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.