Value
7.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 4.4 |
| PEG | 10.0 |
| Analyst target | 9.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 27.8x
- ▸PEG: 0.25
- ▸Attractively valued
MSTR · Why this verdict
Why Strategy (MSTR) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroNEUTRAL
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
3.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 0.0 |
| ROA | 0.0 |
| Gross margin | 9.6 |
| Net margin | 0.0 |
| Current ratio | 6.9 |
| FCF quality | 0.0 |
| Moat | 7.2 |
| Rule of 40 | 3.0 |
| Piotroski F | 6.7 |
- ▸Cash-burning: FCF -1774% of revenue
- ▸Rule of 40: -1762 (fail)
Growth
7.8/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 5.5 |
| EPS growth | 10.0 |
Momentum
1.5/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 3.0 |
| MACD | 0.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 1.0 |
| Volume | 2.7 |
- ▸Capitulation risk (RSI 29, below 200MA)
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Below 200-MA, MA slope -15.0%/30d — confirmed downtrend
Sentiment
8.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 8.5 |
| Price target | 10.0 |
- ▸Analyst upside: 184%
Insider
3.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 4.5 |
| insider conviction | 2.2 |
| holder change | 5.1 |
- ▸Modest insider selling — $27,015,381 (0.062% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
1.1/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 0.0 |
| quality rank | 0.7 |
| growth rank | 3.8 |
Technical
5.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 7.5 |
| support resistance | 8.4 |
| 52w position | 0.0 |
Risk (lower is worse)
3.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 4.3 |
| days to cover | 8.3 |
| volatility | 0.0 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 0.0 |
| beta | 0.0 |
| debt equity | 9.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.05
- ▸High IV: 81%
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
3.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 0.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 0.0 |
| news activity | 8.0 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 1B/3M
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Quality below minimum threshold.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L1:HARD_BLOCKPassed (7)
- ASYMMETRY:9.8>=1.5
- INSIDER:OK
- 8K:CLEAN
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:47d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5
- DEATH_CROSS:HARD_BLOCK
Warning (0)
none
Reward-to-Risk
9.78
Upside
+146.7%
Downside
15.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupFALLING_KNIFE — Death cross, below all MAs, RSI 29, MACD bearish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityAGGRESSIVE — Beta 3.47>1.3
Investment implication
The L1 gate blocked the positive-verdict path: a hard-floor threshold was breached, so dimensional pillars — including Sentiment at 8.0 could not lift the engine output above the verdict floor. Failed gate signal: MOMENTUM:1.5<4.5.
The strongest dimensions are Sentiment at 8.0, Value at 7.8, and Growth at 7.8; the weakest are Peer rank at 1.1, Momentum at 1.5, and Risk (lower is worse) at 3.1. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of 9.78 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.