Value
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 8.6 |
| P/S | 7.0 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.7 |
| Fwd P/E | 9.1 |
| PEG | 3.5 |
| Analyst target | 4.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 11.4x
- ▸PEG: 3.37
MPLX · Why this verdict
Why MPLX (MPLX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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VerdictSELL
Overall score5.2/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
6.6/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 10.0 |
| ROA | 4.7 |
| Gross margin | 7.2 |
| Op margin | 10.0 |
| Net margin | 10.0 |
| Current ratio | 4.3 |
| FCF quality | 3.3 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 4.4 |
- ▸Excellent ROE: 33%
- ▸Strong margins: 40%
- ▸Earnings quality RED FLAG: 41% FCF/NI
Growth
0.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 1.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
- ▸Declining revenue: -3%
Momentum
7.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 8.2 |
| OBV | 10.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 2.6 |
- ▸Volume accumulation (rising OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 6.1 |
| erm sentiment | 5.0 |
Insider
6.7/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 8.1 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸No net insider activity — $0 (0.000% of mkt cap)
- ▸Institutions accumulating
Peer rank
4.9/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 4.3 |
| quality rank | 8.4 |
| growth rank | 1.9 |
- ▸Superior ROE vs peers
- ▸Best-in-class margins
Technical
4.2/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 1.3 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 9.2 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.3/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 9.1 |
| days to cover | 8.2 |
| volatility | 8.1 |
| put call | 0.0 |
| implied vol | 5.4 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 3.3 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 2.84
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
4.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 3.3 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 5.2 |
| dividend safety | 3.5 |
- ▸Earnings concerns: 2B/2M
- ▸Yield trap warning: high yield but unsafe
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (6)
- MOMENTUM:7.0>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- NEWS_EVENTS:NONE_RECENT
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:57d clear
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (1)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.19
Upside
-6.5%
Downside
5.5%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBREAKOUT — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 63, MACD bullish
EdgeNO_EDGE — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityMODERATE — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 5.4 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Momentum at 7.0) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.2=NEGATIVE) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.19 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Momentum at 7.0, Insider at 6.7, and Quality at 6.6; the weakest are Growth at 0.9, Technical at 4.2, and Catalyst at 4.4. The V9 engine flagged 1 failed gate with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.19 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.