Value
5.7/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| P/E | 2.7 |
| P/S | 8.7 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.1 |
| Fwd P/E | 8.1 |
| PEG | 6.6 |
| Analyst target | 3.0 |
- ▸Forward P/E: 14.7x
- ▸PEG: 1.11
BDX · Why this verdict
Why Becton, Dickinson and (BDX) is rated SELL
Updated
Model-generated analysis — not investment advice. Not a registered investment advisor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. How we score · Editorial policy
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VerdictSELL
Overall score4.9/10
ConfidenceMEDIUM
MacroRISK_OFF
TrendMatrix Research · core thesis
Engine thesis — one sentence
Becton Dickinson combines excellent cash conversion and a perfect four-quarter beat streak with strong momentum, but the price is 14.5% above the analyst target, growth is weak and options positioning is bearish.
Falsifiable statement — pillar-level invalidators below. Engine-derived; not personalized advice.
Thesis pillars
| Pillar | Expectation | Trend |
|---|---|---|
The price of $198.91 is 14.5% above the $170.15 analyst target, giving a negative reward-to-risk of -1.24. Upside pct | Analyst targets are revised above $200 or the price reverts toward the target within 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterAnalyst targets lag price in a strong uptrend, and a beat in the report due in 12 days could force upward revisions. | ||
BDX has beaten EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, with an average surprise of 3.0%. Earnings | EPS surprise stays positive in the report due in 12 days and the following quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterBeats of 1% to 4.5% are small, so a modest miss could break the streak. | ||
Cash conversion is excellent at 475% of net income, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9. Quality breakdown | Free cash flow stays above net income and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above. | →Stable |
| CounterNet margin scores only 2.1/10 and return on equity 2.2/10, so cash flow far above net income may reflect depressed earnings rather than strength. | ||
Growth is weak, with a growth score of 1.9/10 and an earnings growth component of 0, ranking near the bottom among peers. Components | Growth score improves above 4/10 as earnings growth turns positive over the next four quarters. | →Stable |
| CounterThe 4/4 beat streak could mean earnings growth is about to improve, as a forward P/E of 15.0x already implies recovery. | ||
The put/call ratio is elevated at 2.53 and a sole-sourced supplier is flagged as a high concentration risk. Risk breakdown | Put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0 and no supply disruption occurs over 12 months. | →Stable |
| CounterHigh put volume near a 52-week high may be portfolio hedging rather than a bearish bet, and sole-sourcing risk may never materialize. | ||
The price of $198.91 is 14.5% above the $170.15 analyst target, giving a negative reward-to-risk of -1.24.
→StableUpside pct
- Expectation
- Analyst targets are revised above $200 or the price reverts toward the target within 12 months.
CounterAnalyst targets lag price in a strong uptrend, and a beat in the report due in 12 days could force upward revisions.
BDX has beaten EPS estimates in all four recent quarters, with an average surprise of 3.0%.
→StableEarnings
- Expectation
- EPS surprise stays positive in the report due in 12 days and the following quarters.
CounterBeats of 1% to 4.5% are small, so a modest miss could break the streak.
Cash conversion is excellent at 475% of net income, supported by a Piotroski F-Score of 7/9.
→StableQuality breakdown
- Expectation
- Free cash flow stays above net income and the Piotroski F-Score stays at 7 or above.
CounterNet margin scores only 2.1/10 and return on equity 2.2/10, so cash flow far above net income may reflect depressed earnings rather than strength.
Growth is weak, with a growth score of 1.9/10 and an earnings growth component of 0, ranking near the bottom among peers.
→StableComponents
- Expectation
- Growth score improves above 4/10 as earnings growth turns positive over the next four quarters.
CounterThe 4/4 beat streak could mean earnings growth is about to improve, as a forward P/E of 15.0x already implies recovery.
The put/call ratio is elevated at 2.53 and a sole-sourced supplier is flagged as a high concentration risk.
→StableRisk breakdown
- Expectation
- Put/call ratio normalizes below 1.0 and no supply disruption occurs over 12 months.
CounterHigh put volume near a 52-week high may be portfolio hedging rather than a bearish bet, and sole-sourcing risk may never materialize.
Per-dimension breakdown
Quality
5.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| ROE | 2.2 |
| ROA | 2.9 |
| Gross margin | 5.4 |
| Op margin | 6.3 |
| Net margin | 2.1 |
| Current ratio | 3.5 |
| FCF quality | 10.0 |
| Moat | 5.8 |
| Piotroski F | 7.8 |
- ▸Excellent cash conversion: 475% FCF/NI
- ▸Strong Piotroski F-Score: 7/9
Growth
1.9/10data confidence 67%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| Rev growth | 3.8 |
| EPS growth | 0.0 |
Momentum
5.9/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| RSI | 5.0 |
| MACD | 10.0 |
| OBV | 1.0 |
| MA position | 9.0 |
| Volume | 4.4 |
- ▸Volume distribution (falling OBV)
- ▸Above 200-day MA
Sentiment
6.0/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| LLM sentiment | 5.5 |
| Analyst rating | 7.2 |
| Price target | 5.0 |
Insider
5.9/10data confidence 75%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| materiality | 5.0 |
| holder change | 5.7 |
| notable moves | 7.0 |
- ▸Negligible insider selling — $1,269,128 (0.002% of mkt cap)
Peer rank
3.8/10data confidence 80%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| value rank | 5.0 |
| quality rank | 5.9 |
| growth rank | 2.5 |
Technical
4.8/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| bollinger | 2.9 |
| support resistance | 2.1 |
| 52w position | 9.5 |
Risk (lower is worse)
6.4/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| short interest | 8.1 |
| days to cover | 5.7 |
| volatility | 7.5 |
| put call | 3.0 |
| implied vol | 6.9 |
| max pain risk | 3.0 |
| beta | 10.0 |
| debt equity | 6.9 |
- ▸Elevated put/call: 1.56
- ▸Above max pain $135
- ▸Concentration risks: 1 HIGH, 1 MED (10-K Item 1A — sized via position_sizing, validated via buy_confidence)
Catalyst
6.1/10data confidence 100%| Component | Sub-score |
|---|---|
| erm | 5.0 |
| earnings history | 10.0 |
| earnings timing | 5.0 |
| surprise avg | 4.1 |
| dividend safety | 6.5 |
| news activity | 6.0 |
- ▸Perfect beat streak: 4Q
- ▸Earnings in 7 days
How the verdict was assembled
Engine trigger
Multiple concerning factors. Consider reducing position.
Engine technical detail
verdict_path:
L4:PATH_F_SELLPassed (4)
- MOMENTUM:5.9>=5.5
- INSIDER:OK
- SEMI_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
- MATERIALS_CYCLE_PEAK:CLEAR
Failed (2)
- ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE
- EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d
Warning (1)
- 8K_CSUITE_CHANGE:5.02 (officer departure/appointment)
Reward-to-Risk
-1.29
Upside
-12.8%
Downside
10.0%
Sizing output
AVOID
SetupBreakout — Golden cross, above all MAs, RSI 69, MACD bullish
EdgeNo clear edge — No clear edge identified
SuitabilityModerate — Balanced profile
Investment implication
The F-path SELL output reflects an overall score of 4.9 below the 5.6 soft trigger — multiple weakening dimensions accumulated rather than a single hard-floor breach. The strongest dimension ( Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4) was not enough to lift the adjusted overall above the threshold. Co-occurring failed gates ( ASYMMETRY:-1.3=NEGATIVE, EARNINGS_PROXIMITY:7d<=7d) reinforce the read. Current asymmetry R:R is -1.29 — supplementary context, not the trigger for this path.
The strongest dimensions are Risk (lower is worse) at 6.4, Catalyst at 6.1, and Sentiment at 6.0; the weakest are Growth at 1.9, Peer rank at 3.8, and Technical at 4.8. The V9 engine flagged 2 failed gates with 1 warning, producing an asymmetric reward-to-risk of -1.29 and an engine sizing output of AVOID.
What would invalidate the thesis
Falsifying conditions — when triggered, the corresponding pillar's thesis is invalidated.
- P1Price Above Analyst Target
Trip ifAnalyst target rises above $215 from the current $170.15.
- P2Perfect Earnings Beat Streak
Trip ifEPS surprise falls below 0% for 2 consecutive quarters.
- P3Excellent Cash Conversion
Trip ifPiotroski F-Score falls below 5 from the current 7.
- P4Weak Earnings Growth
Trip ifGrowth score rises above 4.0 from the current 1.9.
- P5Bearish Options And Supplier Risk
Trip ifPut/call ratio falls below 1.0 from the current 2.53.